Abhisit’s last Card: Ultra-Royalism?

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva addressed the nation in the afternoon of Monday April 11, 2010 stating that “terrorists” have infiltrated the red-shirt movement seeking to bring about a “major change” to Thailand.

Now that Abhisit is hemorrhaging most if not all of his legitimacy, could he be desperate and callous enough to accuse the red-shirt leadership and the movement of being an anti-monarchist movement?

The new terms: “terrorists” and “major change [to Thailand]” is chilling enough already but could this be a prelude to an all-out allegation in order to justify another brutal crackdown?

As I type these words, rumour spread widely about a possible ultra-royalist coup. A reliable red-shirt source told this writer this afternoon that they’re preparing to face a coup as well adding that a significant number of soldiers are on the red-shirt side and is prepared for a showdown.

If Abhisit (or anyone who might be pulling the strings from behind) think of launching an “ultra-royalist” crackdown or coup by blaming red shirts for seeking to establish a “new Thai state” as the
yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and a number of conservative ultra-royalist media have long been accusing then much blood will be spilled, so much that it may make Saturday night’s crackdown/confrontation which led to 21 deaths and 858 wounded look
like a miniature dress rehearsal.

I dread to think what may happen in the coming days but what little democracy, liberty and equality Thais have gained as a result of decades of struggle and sacrifice must be assiduously protected.

The time to prepare for the worst is now.
 

I’m sorry, but I cannot

I’m sorry, but I cannot accept that Aphisit makes any decisions on his own. Not in Thailand where he is surround by many men older than himself. I’m sure he is just a mouth piece, a puppet. And now he is the fall guy, just like Thaksin was the fall guy for a military and bureaucracy out of control. Until the military and bureaucracy are under control of the PEOPLE, and not independent to follow their own selfish pursuits, Thailand will remain in political upheaval. And this is why the Parliament must take control of the current situation and demonstrate that the people are ready to govern themselves. This is Democracy 101. And hopefully independent voices such as Prachathai, will encourage dialogue and reconciliation between political enemies. Good luck Prachathai, I hope you are up for the task.

This is a very dangerous time

This is a very dangerous time for the Red Shirts. The government's back is against the wall and they'll bring out all they have now. Has anyone noticed on the front page of today's Bangkok Post, the little blue box in the center of page? Read it carefully, think, and reflect that this is the same strategy that was used before the coup in 2006...

Prayuth was too eager to

Prayuth was too eager to agree and did not follow the clear signals from Anupong not to engage. Coalition partners are bailing, the court decision against the Democratic Party arrives, the confirmation that Abhisit and his spokesman repeatedly and knowingly lied about there being no live ammo has just been released by the coroner report..so we are looking at a small group that is trying to go for it all. They never learn! In Thailand it is either 100% or 0%, and Abhisit/Suthep/Prayuth/PAD are trying to steal 100%. If they succeed, it's another Prem job. If they fail, perhaps at long last the influence of the ultra-destructive, ultra-nationalist Prem will finally be on the wain. Think about it: who exactly would be willing to send troops into a central tourist zone on a Saturday near the biggest holiday of the year? Someone who hates tourism, hates farangs in general, hates country people, hates everything except a very very minute number of families.

If Prayuth goes for it, expect to see a clear and open intra-military response that will not end nicely for these extremists.

Stan the busybody, you're

Stan the busybody, you're still at it eh? You don't know a thing about power politics in Thailand, not one single thing about how this dance works. And be sure to tell me that your gibberish about UDD snipers shooting into the crowd is not groundless speculation, or that Thaksin paid for and planned it all is based on secret insider facts, blah blah blah.

FACTS:
Anupong dissed Suthep/Abhisit/Prayuth
The ammo was live and military caliber
EC just crashed the Dem Party
Coalition partners are indeed bailing

Another Thaksin plot? Sorry, but Bozo the Clown is off the air.

Suthep and Prayuth went for it, and they lost their wager like a cokehead at the craps table. This whole thing will crash down in 3-2-1...they'll try to take more lives on the way out, but out they will go no matter.

You really and truly hold Thai people in complete disdain, as if you were the only genius who really knows the secrets. This is not X Files, this is reality: the chessboard is known, the players are known, and Thai people know exactly what is going on.
PS Do you even know who Prayuth is? His classmates? His history?

I hope you're the guy who ran

I hope you're the guy who ran stang out of here Dr Anon. But I'm afraid the poor guy craves humiliation and will be back for more.

I find the habitual Thai

I find the habitual Thai refusal to say what you mean maddening, Somying. And apparently you all regard it as a virtue not to do so. At least you have Dr Doom losing the War of the Worlds, Dr Anon.

You guys can follow the inside baseball. All I know is what I read in this paper and a blog or two here and there. It looks to me like the present de facto regime is done for. Whether Anupong will try to set up another coalition of the greedy or stage another coup... I have no idea. I hope neither.

I hope they acknowledge that they have lost the mandate of heaven and just go quietly into the night. Unlikely, I know... but what were the odds of the Redshirts achieving what they have, and evolving as they have, sixteen months ago? Abhisit was good for something. But his price was and remains very high.

John, I find the habitual

John, I find the habitual Thai refusal to say what 'they' mean maddening as well. I'm not Thai, I'm a foreigner. As a faithful reader and commentator of the BKK Post, I'm quite sure that you read the front page today, and perhaps even noticed the little blue box I'm referring to. If so, you will understand why I'm cautious about being specific -- especially as a foreigner.

the little blue box : what

the little blue box :

what are you talking ? tells us ! ;-)

bangkok post is a bad news ! : Rumor, rumor, lie ....

The blue box:- The King

The blue box:-
The King 'would be sad'
The raging political conflict undoubtedly saddens His Majesty the King, says Sumet Tantivejkul, secretary-general of the Chaipattana Foundation, which supports His majesty's development activities.
His Majesty is healthy, Mr Sumet said yesterday. "But if I could read His Majesty's mind, I would think that the King is saddened," he said.
He likened the situation to parents watching their children fight.

Is there anyone who is not

Is there anyone who is not saddened by violence of the sort we've seen these past few days?

The last, paternalist expression, is the creation of Mr Sumet, or of the Bangkok Post and is their proprietary, "royalist" spin on things.

Note that the King has said nothing. All the hangers-on put their words in his mouth.

Of course everyone is

Of course everyone is saddened -- the BKK Post didn't place this small notice for that reason. And of course the parent/child remark is paternalist -- but that's been the prevailing positioning for decades, no? And again, the King himself has said nothing -- as usual. The point of my comments is to make a comparison between this small seemingly innocuous notice and what happened before the coup in 2006. Recall when Gen. Sonthi went to Hua Hin palace a month or so before the coup, and then upon his return, the headlines in the BKK Post read something like 'the King is grieving' (because of all the turmoil in the streets). This is not a casual statement. It 'softened up' the atmosphere for an acceptible coup. The point is not that everyone puts words into His mouth -- everyone does for their own benefit. And in 2006, that happened. And I see a similar process unfolding now, especially with rumors of an ultra-Royalist coup floating about (to test the waters, perhaps?).

Thank you Somying. You're

Thank you Somying. You're easily understood when you simply say what you mean :)

I agree that an (attempt at an) ultra-right wing crew is possible. I hope it doesn't happen. They'll need Generals and the Generals will need troops. Probably no problem getting Generals. Hope there's difficulty in getting troops.

One thing is sure.. they'll have to do more than just wheel out and park the tanks on the streets this time. I hope it doesn't happen. "Successful" or not it will be a disaster of great proportions. That should be enough to forestall it.

That should have been enough to forestall this whole sorry operation. No matter what turn popular politics might have taken on their own after dissolution, nothing on the order of whats happened or may yet happen would have befallen anyone had the parliament simply been dissolved. As it now will be after all.

It must be on the dead tree

It must be on the dead tree version, which I never see. The only thing blue on yesterday's Post that I could see has the sign on the podium marking 63 years of the Democrats existence... can it be that to which you referred?

The Bangkok Post is truly a monstrous organization. They were the English language paper that ran the phony picture of the Crown Prince being "hung in effigy" at Tammasat in 1976. They knew it was a fraud. The students were reenacting the hanging of union activists by government thugs and surely the Bangkok Post knew that. They are the military's house organ. Founded by the CIA.

This morning they are pushing the new "terrorist", "third-hand" line. Ghoulishly titling Hiro Muramoto's camera contents as the Last Picture Show. I haven't read their letters page in quite awhile. I don't believe they pay any attention to me anymore, but I still try to call them on their propaganda. This morning I wrote to them...

0. ' Slain camerman may have caught 'third hand' killers '

1. ' Troops fired rubber bullets and tear gas at the demonstrators who retaliated with petrol bombs and other weapons. '

2. ' Many are waving, beckoning someone from behind the camera. '

3. ' But it is around this point, at an intersection, that TV footage from other sources... '

4. ' The government has talked of a "third force"... '

No one reads your monstrous rag for the news. We all read it to discover what monstrous lies the government is putting forth through its most trusted organ in preparation and "justification" for more murder and mayhem against the people.

You are truly monstrous.

They'll shrug it off if they read it at all... and stick to their business.

Anon, read you own facts

Anon, read you own facts again - the ultra-royalist coup doesn't fit anywhere at all.

I write this from a

I write this from a considerably cooler northeast Connecticut, USA...

It's nothing to do with the government per se. The government is just a temporary custodian making sure the machinery does what it was designed to do - serve the elite interests and keep people from asking too many questions. the council of State, Privy Council, military and those powerful families have been ruining the show, no error here. Which is what Thaksin kind of started. People are split because in a wrong but meaningful comparison they "have been shown the light." Many Thais abroad have been fed up with this crap for decades, and now local Thais are getting brave enough to say they are fed up with being spoon fed and controlled and told what to think. I would hate to see more blood spilled, but this in a large part is because of three dozen decades of elitist rule and condescending caretaking. Anyone with a mind will have bolted by now. Ungpakorn might not be a popular 'movement' for most of us, but he illustrated yet another aspect in Thailand, that academics are sick and tired of malicious dolts. Shall I say anymore?

Stan Gee!!!! No

Stan Gee!!!!
No ultra-royalist coup? Really? Got any resources to back this opinion up this time? Or just another "It can't be so!"?

Actually there needs to be

Actually there needs to be proof that the coup is in the works, not the other way around.

Anupong just said he doesn't want to be involved in this anymore. Who is going to stage a coup against him? His own protege Prayuth?

Just how and on what grounds all this talk about a coup started? From Abhisit's announcement and red rumors?

Amazing news: Abhisit's last

Amazing news: Abhisit's last card is a Red Card!!! Mirabile dictu! Huzzah!! Hozanna!
Looks like PM Opposite's had the Richard!!!! And the Democrat (not) Party.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/174518/democrat-party-faces-dissolution

"The Election Commission on Monday decided by a vote of 4-1 to recommend the dissolution of the ruling Democrat Party for receiving an illegal 258 million baht donation case and the alleged misuse of a 29 million baht political development fund provided by the EC.

The decision was made at a special meeting of the EC chaired by Apichart Sukhagganond."

not a good newspaper,

not a good newspaper, but:

Dissolve Democrat Party, EC recommends

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/04/13/politics/Dissolve-Democrat-Party-EC-recommends-30127141.html

Political solution needed, says Army chief
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/04/13/politics/Political-solution-needed-says-Army-chief-30127133.html

I'm confused. Here's my

I'm confused.

Here's my understanding, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Contemporary wisdom has it that Abhisit is to some extent influenced by the 'ammat', the behind-the-scenes ruling elite, including Prem.

The power of the 'ammat' has always been their ultimate control of the military.

Anupong was part of the military junta that staged the 2006 coup.
It was he who suspended 'Seh Daeng'.

Surely he wouldn't reach this position without the support of the 'ammat', and would not act in ways that didn't follow the bidding of the 'ammat'.

But Anupong has now pretty much refused to engage in any military action against the red-shirts, and has in effect told Abhisit that he must dissolve the house, and so Anupong's position is now actually in direct alliance with the red-shirts.

Without the support of the military, Abhisit's days must be numbered. He will call a new election. The only question is how soon.

If there is an election within the next few months, it is hard to see a situation where the Democrats and Abhisit will be back in power. I doubt that the current coalition would stand behind Abhisit.

There is a good chance that the Peua Thai will regain control, which is surely not what the 'ammat' want.

We also have this decision by the EC, which may lead to the disbanding of the Democratic party and the banning of its leadership from politics from five years.

Is there not a rule in Thai politics that new parties and politicians must register 90 days before an election?

If the Democratic party is disbanded, its members banned, and an election called within three months, surely this would mean that the Democratic party and its politicians would have no opportunity to regroup, and that the Peua Thai would stand virtually unopposed.

In any case, it seems increasingly likely that the next government will be a pro-Thaksin one.

Is the 'ammat' losing its grip on power?

One way to regain power might be through a coup, but I don't believe that Anupong would support a coup, so it would create an enormous rift in the army.
And throughout this, Prem has been silent. There have been none of the previous speeches encouraging the army to do their duty and protect their King and country.

And where has the PAD gone? I've heard nothing from them.

Why aren't they being more vocal?
Or is it just not being reported in English language press?

What's going on?

Paul

The power of the 'ammat' has

The power of the 'ammat' has always been their ultimate control of the military.

Except when the military sees an opening and grabs power on their own. I think if you asked a "permanent minister" in the bureaucracy and a general "Which is the ultimate power in Thailand?" they'd both claim their own instituition was, "In service to the King," of course!

Surely he wouldn't reach this position without the support of the 'ammat', and would not act in ways that didn't follow the bidding of the 'ammat'.

Right. Unless he thought the ammat/bureaucracy were acting in such a way as to damage his own and/or his institution's standing. In which case it's look out for number-one time. And I think that time is now. Do you think Suthep's "adventure" has made the Anupong/military more or less popular with the Thai people? And how seriously so? There's limited downside for Anupong. He's at the end of his career... and the present regime's career is finished already.

There is a good chance that the Peua Thai will regain control, which is surely not what the 'ammat' want.

Right. The interests of the military and the ammat/bureaucracy are diverging, aren't they? The military can really get along with anyone... who funds them.

We also have this decision by the EC, which may lead to the disbanding of the Democratic party and the banning of its leadership from politics from five years.

Our man stang has called this one, as our man hobby has pointed out. The ammat has thrown the Democrat Party under the bus in an attempt to make the Redshirts so delerious that they will go home. Look at the decision : 4-1! And the decision was early! They were insructed to come up with this decision quickly. But no harm done, what's given with the right hand will be withdrawn with the left. All that's really happened is a press release. This is the land of managed courts... the "right" decision on the Democrats will be (un)made down the road.

One way to regain power might be through a coup, but I don't believe that Anupong would support a coup, so it would create an enormous rift in the army.

We all hope they don't destroy the country... "If we can't rule then no one can!"

And where has the PAD gone? I've heard nothing from them.

They're rooting for Samson.

Don't get carried away with

Don't get carried away with PM word terrorist and don't let imagination go too far Pawit. You seem to be very democratic when you write.
I can't believe you still write something very sloppy like this. Last time I heard you speak is when you give an interview to a glossy male magazine. You said you got 7 maids and you always dress well although you wear slipper when you walk around on street?
you can pretend to be one big Phrai but you should know better that there are people out there who don't pretend and they are not Ammat kid like you.
Grow up and do your work.
Oh... and telling people you were surrounded with 7 maids is just so sickening sick.

Dear Khun Patee, Just one

Dear Khun Patee,
Just one day after this article was written, Deputy PM Suthep have (just now) said (April 13) in an interview to many media that these "terrorists" are seeking a much larger change than that of overthrowing the government. Pls. follow the latest news from Suthep's mouth. Or wait to read tomorrow's newspapers (April 14 edition) for the exact quote!
These desperate people appear willing to do anything to cling on to power.
I pray the situation won't descend in that direction but people need to be prepared for possible exploitation of ultra-royalist sentiment.

As for the "maid" issue. Those "maid" were paid by Thai tax payers' money when my father served in Manila for the Thai Foreign Ministry. What's the point of denying the truth? It's the truth but nothing to be particularly proud of although it reminded me that I have to repay my debt back to this society.
One cannot chose their station in life at birth. But one can try to make society more democratic, equitable and just.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

I don't know you Khun Patee,

I don't know you Khun Patee, but when you start right in after the messenger its usually a sign that you've got nothing on the message.

So you start from weakness already.

And Pawit parried your rather hissy charge rather easily. No gain. All loss so far.

Suck it up and try again. Let the stang be your exemplar and guide.

Paul: Here's my take on

Paul: Here's my take on things:

EC's sudden announcement is designed to put doiubt about Democrats future, and hopefully have red's less determined for immediate dissolution
(remember its only a recommendation, and has a few hurdles before any actual punishment, and we all know the courts will always bring down the 'right' decision according to whats needed at the time:)

It seems a tactic designed to ensure the house dissolution is delayed as long as possible, and an added bonus is it goes a little towards negating the double standard claim - of course the CC will be able to find the right reasons later on not to disslove if required.

Anupong is playing along (almost like the good cop) - it suits him to again be seen to be reasonable and against military intervention in political matters - he's due to retire soon remember - the next guy waiting in the wings is the one I feel needs to be watched - he already is fitting into the bad cop role nicely.

Abhisit has added the ultra-royalist card into the mix, which sets up the military option if needed, to quell the danger to national security from those terrorists seeking 'major change' (the added bonus for him is that those terrorists also go a way towards absolving him from blame for the botched disperal action - he may live to fight another day even if he becomes expendable in the current play)

Once an election finally comes around, it wont matter a great deal who wins because the military & judicial cards are in the deck, together with a constitution that seems unable to be changed with any consensus (which suits the guys who matter)

The eventual government will be another ugly coalition, and it will be business as usual in Thailand:)

That's just my 2 cents worth, but I freely admit the machinations of Thai politics forever confound me (especially at the time, even though looking back there always seem to see a clear pattern to the way things pan out:)

Who is going to stage this

Who is going to stage this "ultra-royalist" coup against Anupong and Abhisit, the ammart poster boys?

Paul S is rightly confused because all this indoctrinated elites/putsch vs people theory is breaking at its seams.

I haven't seen Suthep's quote yet, but what if all he was talking about is government resignation as a show of responsibility for the violence? From Suthep's point of view it's as major change as they come.

Obviously that was the whole point of killing soldiers and red shirts alike on Saturday - to force the government collapse.

Major blow for Abhisit, but he is still standing, biding his time to take control.If he is defeated, the country would collapse in total turmoil because it's not only the government that is under threat now, it's the ability of the whole state to control the country, no matter who is in charge. Reds are wrestling control away from the state apparatus as a matter of principle.

EC dudes tried to play big boys, I think. They volunteered to solve the problem in one strike but instead threw the spanner in the works. No one expected a squeak from them for at least a week but they just couldn't refuse the urge to become heroes could they?

StanG: My post about gives

StanG: My post about gives you a hint of who it is likely to be.
(but I'm not saying its going to happen - the groundwork is just being laid in case its needed - ie, if reds don't play ball with the plan)

If Prayuth goes for it,

If Prayuth goes for it, expect to see a clear and open intra-military response that will not end nicely for these extremists.

dr anon thinks that Abhisit/Suthep/Prayuth and the Prem will go down for good if they do try it. I agree, for no real good reason, so I don't think it will happen. The power or impotence of positive thinking, however it plays out.

So what will they do? Another try at a coalition of the greedy, this time Newin will be the centerpiece? Wow, talk about destroying the nation to "save it"...

And if that fails, I hope it does, they'll have to try to pull some more "legal" tricks to disqualify the winners in the next election.

So the real work starts after the dissolution of the parliament.

And the people are going to have to keep their street clothes and their walking shoes ready for some time to come. With the courts against them it's going to uphill all the way until they reinstate a people's constitution and through it straighten out both the courts and the military. As Michael, I think, pointed out to a round of applause the other evening.

The Thais will do it though. That's what I think.

If he is defeated, the

If he is defeated, the country would collapse in total turmoil because it's not only the government that is under threat now, it's the ability of the whole state to control the country, no matter who is in charge.

That's no more than another arbitrary assertion on your part stang. It is certain the country is collapsing now under the de facto regime.

And certainly an election will put things right with the majority and it seems better to have fewer rather than more people upset, on the basis of arithmetic alone.

Your calculations must be adding some coefficient of importance to the people affected as do, by definition, the elite's. Fat thumbs on the scales. Although they are fewer in number, they are somehow more important than those in the majority because they are "better" people. This is the noble lie you seem so fond of yourself.

I don't imagine the Election Commission, or any other body in this hierarchic regime "volunteered" for anything. They were directed to quickly... when was the last time a court or any body in Thailand made a decision two weeks before it was due... come up with the preliminary result that can, by the application of the trusty double standard, be reversed with ease when the time comes to do so.

The de facto government is going down. The problems of state in Thailand are due to the minority that refuses to relinquish its illegitimate grasp of power. The world sees it. Stang denies it. Carry on stang... we know we can count on you tirelessly to do so. Your doggedness is perversely admirable. My opinion, of course.

What's "admirable" about

What's "admirable" about stangtrepism? Amazing that he persists when everyone tells him ***all the time!*** that his assumptions & misinterpretations are baseless, missing the point, stupidly provocative, & Just Plain Wrong. Yes, it is perverse, but not admirable. The guy's a complete f***wit; but, hell, I believe in free speech, so he's welcome to clutter the space up, as far as I'm concerned. I just wish people would stop trying to engage him in discussion. He won't ever change, you know. He's as thick as a brick; not open at all.

Yeah, I admit that there is

Yeah, I admit that there is no possibility of discussion with stang, just a frontal assault, defense really, of stangtrepism. Still, as long as that's realized, stang saves a bit of time spent at the Bangkok Post or The Nation... and I'd never see any of the flat-out yellow stuff he "presents" if he didn't proudly bring home his "kill".

And clutching on to life rather than committing suicide, which is an alternative many of us would be considering if we were infected with stangtrepism, is admirable. Where there's life there's hope. Personal changes in stang's life may yet allow him to see life from a different perspective, the scales may yet fall from his eyes. I agree though that "discussion" will have had no part in a conversion.

Paul: Personally, I’m afraid

Paul: Personally, I’m afraid this is going to get very ugly. Anupong, Suthep and the young PM have all extended olive branches, and the reds turned them down, which I believe was a huge mistake. Even the EC has done its part to relax the reds, but that will obviously be appealed. So everyone is saying Abhisit's days are numbered, but for a guy who generally looks nervous on camera, he looks very much in control. I don’t think he’s going anywhere. The military has been embarrassed; an officer is dead, soldiers are dead. This is going to get ugly, and not next week. The stage is set for the Military to ‘assist’ the reds by clearing out the ‘terrorist’ elements. I'd sleep with one eye open if I were a red general.

Kasit remains the Guardian of

Kasit remains the Guardian of The Memory of Thaksin. He lights candles and burns incense at the government's holiest shrine:

Thai tensions give way to New Year celebrations

Speaking on the sidelines of a global nuclear summit in Washington, Thailand's Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya on Monday called the fugitive leader a "bloody terrorist" and compared him to dictators like Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin.

Back on earth the Redshirts are upbeat:

The body found the Democrat Party guilty of failing to disclose - as required by law - that it received 258 million baht ($8 million) from TPI Polene, a cement producer, in 2005.

Weng Tojirakarn, a key protest leader, said the group was sticking to its demand that Abhisit immediately dissolve Parliament and hold elections.

"This is a long legal process. It can be a ploy for Abhisit to buy time," Weng said. "If Abhisit dissolves Parliament at noon today, we'll have all gone home by three in the afternoon."

The people, united, can never be defeated.

It seems most have concerned

It seems most have concerned on FM Kasit's comments on Thaksin but missed his comments about the monarchy as follows:

‘I think we have to talk about the institution of the monarchy, how it would have to reform itself to the modern globalised world,’ Mr Kasit said, citing the examples of Britain and the Netherlands as countries where the role of the royal family has been adapted.

‘Everything is now becoming in the open,’ he added. ‘Let’s have a discussion. What type of democratic society would we like to be?’

source:
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_513968.html

This article states that

This article states that Abhisit would try to paint the red-shirt group as anti-Monarchy and against the King. Well it looks like that is coming true now, doesn’t it? I am not loyal to any one side but as I’ve spent some days lingering all around and in the protest areas, it seems the gov’t and media are at times slandering them. Be careful of what you believe.